Who is Responsible for Mumbai?

The chaos in India's commercial capital of Mumbai continues, and although reports say police are making progress against the terrorists, it's not over after three days of violence. Reports of casualties fluctuate as more are discovered. And the looming question on the minds of people across the globe is who bears responsibility for this carnage. The answer to that question could create an entirely new area of instability that President-Elect Obama's soon to be unveiled national security team may have to deal with as a first priority.

Maybe it should come as no surprise that US media has been speculating throughout this horror that the attacks were somehow linked to al-Qaeda. After all, it's the terrorist group we're most familiar with. Plus, it's easy for an analyst sitting in a New York studio to take the fact of the complexity of the attacks and spin that into a series of questions about al-Qaeda's involvement. It's certainly true that militant groups inside India have never pulled off the series of coordinated attacks on hotels, the main railway station, and a Jewish center before. Yet does this mean the well equipped and armed young men who did this were acting on orders of Osama bin Laden?

Right now, the correct answer is nobody knows. The Indian government has begun pointing the finger of blame at Pakistan. Media reports have some of the gunmen arriving on a ship from Karachi. If this is true, or if most Indians believe it is, a new and potentially dangerous round of tensions between these two countries could follow. There have been six decades of conflict between India and Pakistan over the disputed territory of Kashmir.

One thing is for sure. No matter where these gun men come from or what cause they espouse, they were extremely well organized and well trained. That they held Americans and Britons hostage, and attacked a Jewish community center must make intelligence agencies in Washington, London, and Tel Aviv more than a little nervous. However, if there's one lesson to be learned by media from this conflict that isn't over yet, it is this.

Don't oversimplify.